In
the second half of the 20th century, people feared that nuclear war
(especially nuclear winter) might snuff us all out. Later, with the arrival of
subtle sensors and global meteorological studies, we worried about ozone holes
and industrial pollution and an anthropogenic Greenhouse effect combining to
blight the biosphere. Later still, the public became aware of the small but
assured probability that our world will sooner or later be struck by a
`dinosaur-killer' asteroid, which could arrive at any moment. For the longer
term, we started to grasp the cosmic reality of the sun's mortality, and hence
our planet's: solar dynamics will brighten the sun in the next half billion
years, roasting the surface of our fair world and killing everything that
still lives upon it. Beyond that, the universe as a whole will surely perish
one way or another.
Take a more optimistic view of things. Suppose we survive as a species,
and maybe as individuals, at least for the medium term (forget the asteroids
and Independence Day). That still doesn't mean there must be a Spike,
at least in the next century or two. Perhaps artificial intelligence will be
far more intractable than Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil and other enthusiasts
proclaim. Perhaps molecular nanotechnology stalls at the level of
micro-electronic machines (MEMS) that have a major impact but never approach
the fecund cornucopia of a true molecular assembler (a `mint', or Anything
Box). Perhaps matter compilers or replicators will get developed, but the
security states of the world agree to suppress them, imprison or kill their
inventors, prohibit their use at the cost of extreme penalties. Then we have
option
[A
ii] No Spike, steady as she goes
This
obviously forks into a variety of alternative future histories, the two most
apparent being
[A
ii a] Nothing much ever changes ever again
which
is the day-to-day working assumption I suspect most of us default to, unless
we force ourselves to think hard. It's that illusion of unaltered identity
that preserves us sanely from year to year, decade to decade, allows us to
retain our equilibrium in a lifetime of such smashing disruption that some
people alive now went through the whole mind-wrenching transition from
agricultural to industrial to knowledge/electronic societies. It's an
illusion, and perhaps a comforting one, but I think we can be pretty sure the
future is not going to stop happening just as we arrive in the 21st
century.
The clearest alternative to that impossibility is
[A
ii b] Things change slowly (haven't they always?)
Well,
no, they haven't. This option pretends to acknowledge a century of vast
change, but insists that, even so, human nature itself has not changed.
True, racism and homophobia are increasingly despised rather than mandatory.
True, warfare is now widely deplored (at least in rich, complacent places)
rather than extolled as honorable and glorious. Granted, people who drive
fairly safe cars while chatting on the mobile phone live rather... strange...
lives, by the standards of the horse-and-buggy era only a century behind us.
Still, once everyone in the world is drawn into the global market, once
peasants in India and villagers in Africa also have mobile phones and learn to
use the Internet and buy from IKEA, things will... settle down. Nations
overburdened by gasping population pressures will pass through the demographic
transition, easily or cruelly, and we'll top out at around 10 billion humans
living a modest but comfortable, ecologically sustainable existence for the
rest of time (or until that big rock arrives).
A bolder variant of this model is
[A
iii] Increasing computer power will lead to human-scale AI, and then stall.
But
why should technology abruptly run out of puff in this fashion? Perhaps there
is some technical barrier to improved miniaturisation, or connectivity, or
dense, elegant coding (but experts argue that there will be ways around such
road-blocks, and advanced research points to some possibilities: quantum
computing, nanoscale processors). Still, natural selection has not managed to
leap to a superintelligent variant of humankind in the last 100,000 years, so
maybe there is some structural reason why brains top out at the Murasaki,
Einstein or van Gogh level.
So AI research might reach the low-hanging fruit, all the way to human
equivalence, and then find it impossible (even with machine aid) to discern a
path through murky search space to a higher level of mental complexity. Still,
using the machines we already have will not leave our world unchanged. far
from it. And even if this story has some likelihood, a grislier variant seems
even more plausible.
[A
iv] Things go to hell, and if we don't die we'll wish we had
This
isn't the nuclear winter scenario, or any other kind of doom by weapons of
mass destruction--let alone grey nano goo, which by hypothesis never gets
invented in this denuded future. Technology's benefits demand a toll from the
planet's resource base, and our polluted environment. The rich nations,
numerically in a minority, notoriously use more energy and materials than the
rest, pour more crap into air and sea. That can change--must change, or
we are all in bad trouble--but in the short term one can envisage a nightmare
decade or two during which the Third World `catches up' with the wealthy
consumers, burning cheap, hideously polluting soft coal, running the exhaust
of a billion and more extra cars into the biosphere...
Some Green activists mock `technical fixes' for these problems, but
those seem to me our best last hope.[6]
We are moving toward manufacturing and
control systems very different from the wasteful, heavy-industrial, pollutive
kind that helped drive up the world's surface temperature by 0.4 to 0.8
degrees Celsius in the 20th century.[7]
Pollsters have noted incredulously that people overwhelmingly state
that their individual lives are quite contented and their prospects good,
while agreeing that the nation or the world generally is heading for hell in a
hand-basket. It's as if we've forgotten that the vice and brutality of
television entertainments do not reflect the true state of the world,
that it's almost the reverse: we revel in such violent cartoons because, for
almost all of us, our lives are comparatively placid, safe and measured. If
you doubt this, go and live for a while in medieval Paris, or palaeolithic
Egypt (you're not allowed to be a noble).